Renewed pipeline talks may ease U.S. tariffs—and unlock upside for Canada’s energy and metals sectors
There’s new political energy behind a long-dormant project: the Keystone XL pipeline. After a meeting at the White House this week, Prime Minister Mark Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump appear to have found common ground on reviving the Alberta-to-Nebraska pipeline—and that could have ripple effects for several Canadian industries.
While no deal was announced, insiders say the leaders made “material progress” on the issue of U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs, which currently sit at a painful 50%. Carney reportedly tied Canada’s renewed interest in Keystone XL to the broader trade talks, suggesting that if the U.S. moves forward on energy cooperation, there could be room to ease up on tariffs.
The revival of Keystone XL could benefit more than just oil producers. Here’s a look at which Canadian stocks may stand to gain if the project regains traction:
1. South Bow Corp (TSX:SOBO)
Now separate from TC Energy, South Bow holds the oil pipeline business once behind Keystone XL. While the company has said it has “moved on” from the project, political backing at both federal and state levels could prompt a re-evaluation. If Keystone gets reactivated, South Bow would be the most direct beneficiary—assuming it’s still the project’s logical operator. Year to date, it’s up around 12%.
2. Russel Metals (TSX: RUS)
This metal distribution giant supplies steel products across North America and has strong ties to the energy and infrastructure sectors. A Keystone reboot would drive demand for its pipeline-grade steel and services, while reduced tariffs could also improve cross-border competitiveness.
3. Algoma Steel Group (TSX: ASTL)
Another major Canadian steelmaker, Algoma has significant production capacity and is investing in electric arc furnace technology to improve efficiency and lower emissions. If pipeline construction restarts and steel tariffs ease, Algoma could see higher order volumes and better pricing power in the U.S. market.
4. Canadian Natural Resources (TSX: CNQ)
As one of the largest oil producers in Canada, CNQ could benefit from increased pipeline capacity. A fully realized Keystone XL would give heavy oil producers more access to U.S. Gulf Coast refineries, helping reduce reliance on rail transport and potentially narrowing the price discount on Canadian crude.
5. Enbridge (TSX: ENB)
While not directly tied to Keystone, Enbridge’s existing pipeline network would become even more valuable if U.S. demand for Canadian oil grows. Additionally, regulatory momentum for one major pipeline could create a friendlier climate for future infrastructure expansion across the sector.
It’s still early days—there’s no formal proposal on the table, and the company behind Keystone has publicly moved on. But the political tone has shifted. If talks continue and tariffs do start to ease, energy and industrial stocks in Canada could see a meaningful tailwind.
For investors, this could present opportunities in Canadian energy, steel, and infrastructure plays—especially for those with a longer-term outlook and an appetite for sectors tied to cross-border policy shifts.